ProjectSupportThe43

AJ Allmendinger: By the Numbers

2011-04-27T11:54:00.001-04:00

What a difference a year makes. Coming off a wild, chaotic, and tumultuous finish to the 2010 season, AJ Allmendinger is showing continued improvements in his third full Nascar Sprint Cup season. Sitting fifteenth in the points, AJ could not have asked for a better start to the season, well, besides a win. However, flying under the radar, AJ’s numbers are already a big jump from 2010. For being a notoriously slow starter, one could say AJ has rocketed out of the gates. Here’s why:

· 1- Only one finish outside the top 20, as opposed to 3 last year.

· 2- Top ten starts, accounting for an average 15.3 overall, 20.6 in 2010.

· 4- The number that should be in the top 10 category. 11^th at Daytona, 9^th at Phoenix, 11^th at Talladega, and 14^th at Martinsville where a late caution robbed the 43 of a possible top 5.

· 9- Number of spots higher in the points at the same point in time in 2010, 24^th to 15^th.

· 16- Average finish in 2011, last year 20.6 after 8 races.

· 17- Number of points currently out of the final transfer spot, easily obtainable in one event.

· 19- The difference in average finish at Super Speedways. 30^th in 2010.

11^th in 2011,

· 44- The equivalent number of points ahead after 8 races. 2010 (equivalent) 182, 2011, 226. Practically a race ahead of schedule.

· 99.6- The percentage of laps completed. 2010 was a dismal 87.3 after 8 races, an overall increase by 12.3% which is huge.

· 100- The percentage of faith AJ and 43 fans should have that AJ will bring one home.

· 110- The percentage AJ and Team continue to give every race.

· 636,543- The increase in number of times AJ has been positively mentioned prerace, during race, post-race, and in the media. (Educated guess of course)

· Infinite- The number of votes left for YOU to cast to get AJ into the All-Star race!

In all seriousness, the increases in performance are showing up in every category most notably the Super Speedway department. AJ tweeted last year, “We just need to fix those Super Speedway numbers” and seems to be a man of his word. Now that the wild card races are completed in the beginning stage of the 2011 Nascar Sprint Cup season, the intermediate grind begins and 10 of the next 13 races fall into that category. Look for AJ to make big gains over the duration of this stretch, where he averaged a 15.9 finish at intermediate tracks in 2010. Consistent finishes should dominate the stat sheet and help catapult AJ into a solid top 12 spot in the standings. The overall improvement of the 43 team is evident, and for this deserves much praise and congratulations, and don’t forget, “A go DINGERRRRRRR.”

AJ's Break out Season, and Why

2010-12-29T13:51:00.002-05:00

Ok, so you’re now the flagship driver for Richard Petty Motorsports, You Just had the best season of your NASCAR career, your improvement in 2010 was incredible, and you haven’t even reached your potential yet. If this was you, your name would be AJ Allmendinger, and your 2011 season can’t get here fast enough.

AJ could follow in the footsteps of many popular drivers who have had break out third full seasons. I’m not sure if you’ve ever heard the names Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton, but they all improved drastically in their third full season. I went back and looked at NASCAR’S top 20 drivers in points with at least three full seasons and this is what I found.

On average, every statistical category increased. The wins, top fives, top tens, average start, average finish, and points finish all increased. The stats are posted on the link to the right labeled, “AJ Prediction.” So what does this say about what AJ Allmendinger’s mindset should be for 2011? It says “BRING IT ON!”

AJ’s 2011 season has all the ingredients for success. Richard Petty Motorsports has their financial stability that plagued the team for the latter half of 2010. RPM will also continue to get their equipment from Roush Fenway. AJ’s always been a confident driver, and has gained respect for hardly ever having disputes on the track. With a little luck at the super speedways, AJ can find himself solidly in the top fifteen in points for 2011. Based on the average increase for driver statistics in their third year, AJ should have one win, five top fives, and eleven top tens with a 14^th place finish in the points.

My prediction has a little more faith than the projected numbers. I believe with everything falling in place this year, AJ will not only find himself with a win, but a spot in the chase. If AJ can be in 12^th by the end of the Richmond race, he has a legitimate shot at being in the top ten for the end of the year. AJ has always finished the season strong, so it could work to his advantage. That being said, my predictions for AJ’s 2011 season go as follows, two wins, six top fives, fifteen top tens, and tenth place in the points.

To wrap it up, AJ and all 43 fans have got to be licking their chops for 2011 and the success it should bring. I know I am. I’ll see you guys at the track, and hopefully we’ll see AJ in victory lane. Go Dingerrrrrr!

Don't Bash The King

2010-12-13T18:29:00.005-05:00

I read a very interesting article while looking for some Richard Petty news today on the web. The author of the article was Jay Busbee with Yahoo sports. The article came across to me as bashing Richard Petty being back on top, but it wasn't the bashing that upset me, it was the information used to support it. The stats and comparisons used to support it seemed very “on the fly” and I completely disagree.

If you haven’t read the article, click the link and read it first. The main statistics Jay uses here are Petty’s lack of success from 1984 to 2008, and saying that Petty Enterprise’s lack of success was a direct cause of Richard Petty Being in charge after he got out from behind the wheel in 1992.

After actually researching the reasons why Petty faced a lack of success from 1985 to 1992 and as an owner and head of operations after 1992, I came to many conclusions. The Driver’s age, Increase in competition, and Resources and Technology were the reasons, not Richard Petty.

It is not uncommon for great drivers to eventually to lose their edge on the competition later in their careers. Every big name has had his rise and fall. Richard was 47 years old entering his 1985 season and finally relinquished the wheel in 1992 when he was 55 years of age. Sorry to point it out, but Richard wasn’t exactly a spring chicken during these years. He was racing against people ten, fifteen, and twenty years younger than him. Also during the period of 1985 to 1992, other big names were making a splash into the sport. If your name wasn’t Dale Senior, Bill Elliot, Darrell Waltrip, Davey Allison or Rusty Wallace, there is a good chance you didn’t win a race, let alone a championship. These 5 drivers accounted for 139 wins out of 231 races, roughly sixty percent. So using Petty’s lack of success during this era I feel is a low blow, he was at the end of his Hall of Fame career, and racing against NASCARS biggest new names.

The second era referred to is 1992 to 2008. The article suggests that Richard being in charge was the cause of Petty Enterprises lack of success. Once again, the factor was not Richard Petty’s leadership, but the age of drivers that replaced him, level of competition, and the technology and resources available to the other teams. We will start it off with driver age. Rick Wilson, John Andretti, Bobby Hamilton, Jeff Green, and Bobby Labonte were an average of 39.4 years of age when they entered the driver seat fulltime for the 43 car. These were obviously not NASCAR’s young talent filling the seat, no offense to the respected drivers.

NASCAR saw the likes of Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, and Dale Junior enter the Sport in 2000 or before. Most of these are all champions. Post 2000 names such as Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin were in by 2006. All of these drivers have accounted for about sixty percent of wins since 1993. If you add in the likes of Dale senior, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, and Mark martin you find that these nineteen drivers have won 82 percent of races since 1993. Do you know how many drivers have been in the sport since 1993? A lot more than nineteen. All the drivers listed have raced for either Hendrick, Roush, Childress, or Gibbs and have amassed 17 of the 18 championships. The Last person to win a championship without driving for these was Dale Jarrett in 1999(Yates).

I make it a point to describe the team names of all these great drivers because it directly correlates with their success. The names Roush, Hendrick, Childress, and Gibbs have always had the best equipment and the most talent behind their wheels. When you have a team comprised of three, four or five cars, (Roush ran a five car team from 1997 until 2009), the sponsorship money as well as the advertising and success make it easy to have the funds to make sure your teams have the best equipment, newest technologies, and best drivers. Hendrick was also able to steal away Robby Loomis, VP and the crew chief for the only wins the 43 has seen since Richard, but luckily Loomis has returned back to be the current VP of operations. Once again, this is not a reason to put the blame on Richard Petty.

The circumstances that lead to lack of success were not Richard Petty, but the evolution of the sport passing Petty Enterprise by. I Believe Richard being back in charge puts a positive vibe back into Petty fans. Petty isn’t in the same situation prior to the buyout by Medallion and DGP investments. He has two successful drivers and sponsorship deals that match the numbers seen at the bigger stables. Also, by using Roush equipment and ford, Petty Motorsports has the technology that is top of the line. I say this in good faith for Jay Busbee’s future articles, “Research the topic before you decide to bash the people in it, especially The King.”

AJ's Improvement, The Numbers are staggering.

2010-12-09T18:10:00.001-05:00

     AJ Allmendinger's 2010 season was a breath of fresh air throughout "Petty" nation. Sure, the stats that everyone sees are 19th in points, two top fives, and eight top tens, but I decided to dig a little deeper to show his improvement in his second full season. When you look beyond the top fives and tens you find staggering increases in performance. I have broken these statistics into four categories of improvement based on the 2009 and 2010 season stats. These include Intermediate, Road Course, Short Track, and Overall. These four categories also have their subcategories of top fives, top tens, top fifteens, and top twenties.

    The intermediate tracks are the bread and butter of the NASCAR schedule. They make up two thirds, or 66.67 percent of the season. AJ's performance at these tracks was critical in his finishing point’s standings of 19th. AJ's 19 top twenty finishes showed an increase by 72.72 percent in 2010. The 14 top fifteens were an increase of 180 percent. Top fives and top tens both increased by 100 percent. AJ finished in the top 15 58.3 percent of the time, and the top 20 almost 79.16 percent in 2010. These statistics show that 2011 should bring the consistency and solid finishes we have come to expect on the intermediate tracks.

    AJ has also shown the improvement on some of the more exciting tracks, Road Courses and Short tracks. He's proven himself as a solid Road Course competitor already, but still improved his average finishes from 10 to 8.5. He scored top fifteens at both road courses again to back up his 2009 performance. At the Short tracks, he crossed the stripe top 20 four out of the six races and twice in the top fifteen. Both were 100 percent increases from 2009.

    Petty fans across the nation could not have been happier with the type of season AJ had. His overall statistics improved in almost every category. Top twenties increased by 53 percent, top fifteens by 50 percent, top tens by 33 percent, and top fives by 100 percent. His average starting and finishing position increased by about 25 percent, and his lead lap finishes went up 44 percent. These all are huge accomplishments for a first year team and young AJ.

    To put it all in a nutshell, The "Dinger" has been what the iconic 43 car has needed for a long time coming. 2011 should not only bring more of the flashy stats, but the consistent top fifteen runs that will help AJ have a fighting chance to make "The Chase." The numbers don't lie, Expect AJ and the 43 team to experience much deserved success in 2011, and bring new life to "Petty" nation, and join us all when we say "A go DINGERRRRRRR!!!!!!!!"